Archived assessment
UTC —Loading—/ ±3 trend points
Signal consistency—
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Understand Bitcoin market conditions using the same public dataset. Prices, open interest, funding rates and sentiment first produce a reviewable trend score; AI then explains assessment evidence and observation conditions.
DAILY RESEARCH / UTC CLOSE
Daily research · Data before views
Reading public archives. Page-loading status and cloud task logs are two different forms of evidence.
- Latest available archive / UTC
- — Latest complete trading day, rather than Bangkok calendar day
- Current viewing date / UTC
- — Loading
- Data assembly record / Bangkok
- — Not the task start or upload completion time
- AI text status
- — Model and scoring version awaiting loading
Read the two timelines separately:Archived assessments use closed data for the selected UTC trading day; quotes and candlesticks below update independently and do not represent prices at the time of a historical assessment.Signal agreement is not a probability of rising prices, accuracy or win rate.
LIVE / NOT THE SELECTED ARCHIVE
Current live market data
Rolling 24 hours · Different from closing data for the archive date
BTC/USDT current price…
24h change—
24h turnover (USDT)—
Market data source · Refresh—
Quotes attempt to refresh approximately every 5 seconds; when the network is unavailable, they are labeled as the last successful values rather than presented as live.
Assessment summary and observation conditions
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K-LINE · EMA10 / EMA20
Candlesticks and EMA trends
Current live view · Not a historical screenshot of the selected archive date
This chart continuously observes the current market and does not return to the historical date selected above.
Candlestick data: Binance spot BTCUSDT (data-api.binance.vision, backup OKX BTC-USDT), streamed live. Signals are confirmed only on closed candles; open candles are excluded from crossover determination. “Daily crossover status” uses UTC daily closes and a calculation definition similar to daily-report factors, but live and archived cutoff dates and lookback samples differ, so values need not match; elapsed time is measured in days. Charts are for technical observation only and are not investment advice.
MARKET DATA
Daily data
UTC trading day 00:00–24:00 · Binance BTCUSDT
ANALYSIS
Assessment analysis
Bullish signalBearish signalNeutral / Description
This archive does not contain complete AI analysis; the existing program-generated data sections are shown below. This does not mean AI is being generated in the background.
Data quality and AI boundaries
Awaiting loading- Data status
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- Factor weight coverage
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- AI completion record / Bangkok
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“No warnings recorded” refers only to the program's checks and does not guarantee error-free data. Readable AI text does not mean human review has passed; missing data, units and conclusions still require independent review. Historical files may be regenerated and are not immutable audit records.
View notes, sources and original archives
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Trend score components
Standardized factor score (z, capped at ±3) × weight → contribution to trend score
30 DAYS
Prices and assessments over the past 30 days
Top: daily close, dots colored by daily assessment; bottom: trend score
Strongly bearishBearishBearish biasNeutral, bearish tiltNeutralNeutral with a bullish biasBullish biasBullishStrongly bullish
Click a chart date to view that day's assessmentHISTORY
Historical assessments
Historical backtest (not live) · 24-hour directional hit rate
Loading backtestBacktest using trend scores from historical archives: assume publication at 00:10 UTC on the day following each UTC trading day and observe price direction over the subsequent 24 hours. Historical archives have no first-publication evidence, and trend scores may have been recalculated. Results are for reference only,Not equivalent to the publication validation below。
—Hits ÷ (Hits + Misses)
Sample pending loadingPurely neutral signals, windows shorter than 24 hours and missing market prices are excluded (—records)
- Bullish
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- Bearish
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- Most recent 30 samples
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Market data: Binance BTCUSDT spot · 1-minute opening prices; equal starting and ending prices count as a miss.
View original backtest records ↗Methodology version backtest-24h-v1
Directional hit rate 24 hours after publication
Loading statisticsObserve market prices from the first confirmed public publication to validate the direction of the trend score frozen at publication. Signal agreement still measures agreement among factors.
—Hits ÷ (Hits + Misses)
Sample pending loadingHit count awaiting retrieval
- Awaiting a full 24 hours
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- Missing publication evidence
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- Fully neutral
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- Market data requires verification
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Statistics cover all archives included in the validation materials; date filters do not change this statistic.
Statistics update time awaiting retrieval
Statistical definitions and validation boundaries
- Forecast direction:Only use trend scores frozen at first publication; above 0 is bullish and below 0 bearish, including “neutral with a bullish/bearish bias”; purely neutral scores equal to 0 are excluded. Recalculated assessments cannot replace the originally published direction.
- Published:The conservative confirmed public publication time is when the first upload is read back from the public internet, which may be later than the actual upload. Archived trading dates, data assembly logs, AI completion logs and file modification times cannot substitute for it. Historical archives without reliable confirmation records are neither backfilled nor included.
- Observation window:The start is the opening price of the first 1-minute candle no earlier than the confirmed publication time, rounded forward with a delay under 60 seconds; the endpoint is the opening price of the corresponding minute 24 hours later. Daily changes or the following day's close are not substituted.
- Validation market data:Binance BTCUSDT spot (USDT/Bitcoin). Only prices from the same market and definition above are used; unavailable sources or missing prices are marked “market data requires verification”, without substitution from live market fallback sources.
- Hit assessment:A bullish view with an ending price above the starting price, or a bearish view with an ending price below it, counts as a hit; the opposite or unchanged prices count as a miss. Valid samples include only “hits + misses”; cases under 24 hours, missing publication evidence, purely neutral views and missing market data are excluded.
- Statistical meaning:This validates the trend score's direction; it does not assess AI text quality or equal a trading win rate or investment return. Fees, slippage and holding paths are excluded. Small samples can cause volatile ratios, and past hits do not guarantee future performance.
View original validation records ↗Methodology version publication-24h-v1
Swipe horizontally to view all metrics; the date column remains visible.
| Trading day (UTC) | Closing price | Daily change | Trend score | Assessment | Signal consistency | Direction validation 24 hours after publication |
|---|
METHODOLOGY
Assessment methodology
Methodology table version 2026-09-25.2 · Archive version awaiting loading
The trend score combines 11 public-data factors. Each is first converted to a standardized z score (normalized using an empirical scale or 30-day realized volatility, clipped at ±3), then weighted:
趋势分 = clip( 1.6 × Σ(wᵢ·zᵢ) ÷ Σwᵢ , −3, +3 )
“Daily EMA trend” is the difference between EMA10 and EMA20 calculated from UTC daily closing prices, divided by the closing price and daily σ. It is a continuous value rather than a binary golden-cross / death-cross signal: positive when EMA10 is above EMA20 and negative when below, with a larger absolute value for a wider gap. The chart above reflects current live observations; its cutoff date and lookback period may differ from the selected archive, so the EMA values need not match.
If a data item is missing that day, its factor is excluded, weights are renormalized across remaining factors, and coverage is reflected in signal consistency.
| Factor | Calculation method | Weight | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily change | ln(close/previous close) ÷ daily σ | 25% | σdaily is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns over the past 30 days |
| 3-day momentum | ln(close/close 3 days earlier) ÷ (daily σ·√3) | 10% | — |
| 7-day momentum | ln(close/close 7 days earlier) ÷ (σdaily·√7) | 10% | — |
| Daily EMA trend | (EMA10 − EMA20) ÷ close ÷ σdaily | 10% | Daily EMA10/EMA20 gap calculated using UTC daily closing prices, as a continuous value: positive when EMA10 is above EMA20 (golden-cross state), negative when below (death-cross state), with a larger absolute value for a wider gap |
| Change in open interest | sign(Daily change) × OI 24h change rate ÷ 3% | 10% | Rising price with rising open interest / falling price with falling open interest confirms the trend; falling price with rising open interest indicates increased short positioning |
| Funding-rate change | (Daily average − preceding 7-day average) ÷ 0.005% | 5% | — |
| Funding-rate crowding | −(Daily average − 0.01%) ÷ 0.02% | 5% | Contrarian indicator: higher funding rates indicate more crowded long positions |
| Aggressive buy/sell ratio | (24h taker buy volume/taker sell volume − 1) ÷ 0.05 | 10% | — |
| Change in retail long/short ratio | −(Day-end/day-start − 1) ÷ 5% | 5% | Contrarian indicator: a rising market-wide account long/short ratio is treated as retail traders chasing long positions |
| Change in top-trader long/short ratio | (Day-end/day-start − 1) ÷ 5% | 5% | Positive indicator: a rising top-trader account long/short ratio is treated as bullish positioning by major participants |
| Change in Fear & Greed Index | (Current-day index − previous-day index) ÷ 8 | 5% | — |
Assessment level
Strongly bearish≤ −2.5Bearish(−2.5, −1.5]Bearish bias(−1.5, −0.5]Neutral, bearish tilt(−0.5, 0)Neutral= 0Neutral with a bullish bias(0, 0.5)Bullish bias[0.5, 1.5)Bullish[1.5, 2.5)Strongly bullish≥ 2.5
Signal consistency
Measures factor direction consistency, signal strength and data completeness, ranging from 0–1:
(0.3 + 0.45×一致度 + 0.25×强度) × (0.6 + 0.4×覆盖率)
Agreement: share of factor weights aligned with the trend score (weighted by min(|z|,1)); strength: min(|trend score| ÷ 1.5, 1); coverage: share of factor weights available that day.
AI text
Market outlooks and assessment analyses are generated by the xAI Grok model. The model receives only an indicator package compiled from the data above and is instructed to cite only its figures, align conclusions with the system trend score and give no trading recommendations. Generated results undergo existing structural and numeric checks, but these do not fully verify units, time periods or semantics, nor guarantee all anomalies prevent publication. The page shows archived review flags; when AI text is missing or generation fails, the existing program summary is used, with no promise that regeneration is running in the background.
Disclaimer: This section is automatically generated by software and AI using public market data and is for research and information only. It is not investment advice or a commitment of returns. Cryptoasset prices are highly volatile; derivatives data may be delayed or revised, and past performance does not indicate future results. Exercise independent judgment and bear your own risks.
FACTS / SOURCES / CONTEXT
Page highlights and supporting materials
Does the page show the latest assessment?
Daily assessments are interpreted using the UTC trading day shown on the page and closed data; the date index provides available versions. Read live quotes separately from historical scores; update times, model status and missing data follow each edition's original records.