Today's assessment
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After each trading day's close (UTC Monday to Friday), aggregate gold price momentum, the US Dollar Index, US 10-year Treasury yields, and gold perpetual contract open interest, funding rates, taker buying/selling and account long/short ratios to calculate a transparent, reviewable trend score. AI then writes an assessment constrained by the same dataset.
Gold XAUUSDT Current price…
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Market outlook
AI assessment text generatingAI text for this archive is not yet available; the page first shows a program-generated summary based on that day's data.
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K-LINE · EMA10 / EMA20
Candlesticks and EMA trends
XAUUSDT perpetual · 15m / 1h / 4h / 1d · Live
Candlestick data: Binance XAUUSDT perpetual contracts (www.binance.com/fapi, fallback OKX XAU-USDT-SWAP), refreshed approximately every 5 seconds; daily candles exclude Saturdays and Sundays (UTC). Signals are confirmed only on closed candles; open candles do not enter crossover determinations. “Daily crossover status” uses trading-day closes (Monday–Friday UTC), consistent with the trend score's “daily EMA trend” factor; elapsed days are trading days. Charts are for technical observation only and do not constitute investment advice.
MARKET DATA
Daily data
UTC trading day 00:00–24:00 · Binance XAUUSDT perpetual (tracks spot XAU/USD)
ANALYSIS
Assessment analysis
Bullish signalBearish signalNeutral / Description
AI assessment text is being generated. “Key data” and “24H market review” below are automatically generated by software from daily data; “Long/short dynamics” and “Risk notes” will be published with the AI text.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Trend score components
Standardized factor score (z, capped at ±3) × weight → contribution to trend score
30 DAYS
Prices and assessments over the past 30 days
Top: trading-day closing prices, with dot colors indicating the day's assessment; bottom: trend score (excluding weekend closures)
Strongly bearishBearishBearish biasNeutral, bearish tiltNeutralNeutral with a bullish biasBullish biasBullishStrongly bullish
Click a chart date to view that day's assessmentHISTORY
Historical assessments
Historical backtest (not live) · 24-hour directional hit rate
Loading backtestBacktest using trend scores from historical archives: assume publication at 00:15 UTC on the day following each UTC trading day and observe price direction over the subsequent 24 hours. Historical archives have no first-publication evidence, and trend scores may have been recalculated. Results are for reference only,Not equivalent to the publication validation below。
—Hits ÷ (Hits + Misses)
Sample pending loadingPurely neutral signals, windows shorter than 24 hours and missing market prices are excluded (—records)
- Bullish
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- Bearish
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- Most recent 30 samples
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Market data: Binance XAUUSDT perpetuals (including weekends, not spot XAU/USD) · 1-minute opening prices; equal starting and ending prices count as a miss.
View original backtest records ↗Methodology version backtest-24h-v1
Directional hit rate 24 hours after publication
Loading statisticsObserve market prices from the first confirmed public publication to validate the direction of the trend score frozen at publication. Signal agreement still measures agreement among factors.
—Hits ÷ (Hits + Misses)
Sample pending loadingHit count awaiting retrieval
- Awaiting a full 24 hours
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- Missing publication evidence
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- Fully neutral
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- Market data requires verification
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Statistics cover all archives included in the validation materials; date filters do not change this statistic.
Statistics update time awaiting retrieval
Statistical definitions and validation boundaries
- Forecast direction:Only use trend scores frozen at first publication; above 0 is bullish and below 0 bearish, including “neutral with a bullish/bearish bias”; purely neutral scores equal to 0 are excluded. Recalculated assessments cannot replace the originally published direction.
- Published:The conservative confirmed public publication time is when the first upload is read back from the public internet, which may be later than the actual upload. Archived trading dates, data assembly logs, AI completion logs and file modification times cannot substitute for it. Historical archives without reliable confirmation records are neither backfilled nor included.
- Observation window:The start is the opening price of the first 1-minute candle no earlier than the confirmed publication time, rounded forward with a delay under 60 seconds; the endpoint is the opening price of the corresponding minute 24 hours later. Daily changes or the following day's close are not substituted.
- Validation market data:Binance XAUUSDT gold perpetual futures (USDT/ounce), not spot gold; a continuous 24-hour period including weekends, without rolling forward to the next trading day. Uses only prices from the same market and basis above; unavailable sources or missing prices are labeled “Market data requires verification,” without substitution from live-quote fallback sources.
- Hit assessment:A bullish view with an ending price above the starting price, or a bearish view with an ending price below it, counts as a hit; the opposite or unchanged prices count as a miss. Valid samples include only “hits + misses”; cases under 24 hours, missing publication evidence, purely neutral views and missing market data are excluded.
- Statistical meaning:This validates the trend score's direction; it does not assess AI text quality or equal a trading win rate or investment return. Fees, slippage and holding paths are excluded. Small samples can cause volatile ratios, and past hits do not guarantee future performance.
View original validation records ↗Methodology version publication-24h-v1
Swipe horizontally to view all metrics; the date column remains visible.
| Trading day (UTC) | Closing price | Daily change | Trend score | Assessment | Signal consistency | Direction validation 24 hours after publication |
|---|
METHODOLOGY
Assessment methodology
Model version 2026-09-25.gold.2
The trend score combines 12 public-data factors. Each is first converted to a standardized z score (normalized using empirical scales or 30-day realized volatility, capped at ±3), then weighted:
趋势分 = clip( 1.6 × Σ(wᵢ·zᵢ) ÷ Σwᵢ , −3, +3 )
If a data item is missing on a given day (for example, no closing Dollar Index or Treasury data on a U.S. holiday), that factor is excluded and weights are renormalized across the remaining factors, with coverage reflected in signal agreement.
Factors fall into three groups:Price momentum 48%, macro (USD / interest rates) 20%, perpetual futures positions and funding 32%. Gold pricing is driven more by the US dollar and real interest rates, so the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields replace the Fear & Greed Index used in Bitcoin analysis. These perpetuals are gold contracts listed on crypto exchanges; their participant mix differs from COMEX futures and spot markets, so positioning and funding factors carry lower weights than in Bitcoin analysis.
Trading calendar: spot gold closes on weekends (approximately Friday 21:00 to Sunday 22:00 UTC). Although Binance perpetual futures trade 7×24, weekend volume is thin and prices are broadly flat, so assessments are issued only for UTC Monday–Friday. Monday's daily change is measured against the previous trading day's (Friday's) close. CFTC positioning reports are weekly data, used only as background and excluded from the trend score.
The “daily EMA trend” is the difference between EMA10 and EMA20 calculated from trading-day closing prices (excluding weekends and market holidays), divided by the closing price and daily σ. It is a continuous value, not a binary golden-cross/death-cross signal: positive when EMA10 is above EMA20, negative when below, with greater separation producing a larger absolute value. The daily crossover status in the “Candlesticks and EMA trend” chart above uses the same definition as this factor.
| Factor | Calculation method | Weight | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily change | ln(Close/previous trading day's close) ÷ daily σ | 22% | Daily σ is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns over the past 30 trading days |
| 3-day momentum | ln(close/close 3 trading days earlier) ÷ (σdaily·√3) | 8% | — |
| 5-day (weekly) momentum | ln(Close/close 5 trading days earlier) ÷ (daily σ·√5) | 8% | — |
| Daily EMA trend | (EMA10 − EMA20) ÷ close ÷ σdaily | 10% | The daily EMA10/EMA20 gap calculated using trading-day closing prices (excluding weekends and market holidays), as a continuous value: positive when EMA10 is above EMA20 (golden-cross state), negative when below (death-cross state) |
| Change in US Dollar Index | −ln(DXY/previous value) ÷ σDXY | 12% | Inverse indicator: a stronger USD generally weighs on gold; σDXY is the standard deviation of daily returns over 30 trading days |
| Change in U.S. Treasury yields | −Δ10Y(bp) ÷ σΔ | 8% | Contrarian indicator: rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold; σΔ is the standard deviation of daily changes over 30 trading days |
| Change in open interest | sign(daily change) × OI 24h change rate ÷ 10% | 8% | Price rises with increasing open interest / price falls with decreasing open interest are treated as trend confirmation; this contract's daily open interest changes often exceed ±10%, so the scale is wider than for BTC |
| Aggressive buy/sell ratio | (24h taker buy volume/taker sell volume − 1) ÷ 0.05 | 8% | — |
| Funding-rate change | (daily average − previous 7-day average) ÷ 0.004% | 4% | This contract settles every 4 hours (6 times daily); the rate is per settlement |
| Funding-rate crowding | −(Daily average − 0.005%) ÷ 0.01% | 4% | Contrarian indicator: higher funding rates indicate more crowded long positions |
| Change in retail long/short ratio | −(day-end/day-start − 1) ÷ 20% | 4% | Contrarian indicator; this contract's account long/short ratio has large intraday swings, so the scale is widened to 20% |
| Change in top-trader long/short ratio | (Day-end/day-start − 1) ÷ 20% | 4% | Positive indicator: a rising top-trader account long/short ratio is treated as bullish positioning by major participants |
Assessment level
Strongly bearish≤ −2.5Bearish(−2.5, −1.5]Bearish bias(−1.5, −0.5]Neutral, bearish tilt(−0.5, 0)Neutral= 0Neutral with a bullish bias(0, 0.5)Bullish bias[0.5, 1.5)Bullish[1.5, 2.5)Strongly bullish≥ 2.5
Signal consistency
Measures factor direction consistency, signal strength and data completeness, ranging from 0–1:
(0.3 + 0.45×一致度 + 0.25×强度) × (0.6 + 0.4×覆盖率)
Agreement: share of factor weights aligned with the trend score (weighted by min(|z|,1)); strength: min(|trend score| ÷ 1.5, 1); coverage: share of factor weights available that day.
Data sources
- Price, 6-hour segments: Binance XAUUSDT perpetual futures (TradFi perpetuals, underlying: spot gold XAU, 1 unit = 1 ounce), daily and 6-hour candlesticks; backup: OKX XAU-USDT-SWAP. Binance XAU index closing prices are also recorded for reference.
- Open interest, funding rate, taker buy/sell ratio, long/short ratio: Binance XAUUSDT perpetual futures public statistics (1-hour intervals; funding settled every 4 hours).
- U.S. Dollar Index, 10-year Treasury yield: Yahoo Finance public market data (DX-Y.NYB, ^TNX), daily close.
- CFTC positioning report: CFTC public data (Disaggregated Futures-Only, COMEX gold), managed-money net long positions, updated weekly.
- Page live quotes: Binance XAUUSDT perpetual → OKX XAU-USDT-SWAP → Binance PAXG/USDT (tokenized gold), used as fallbacks in that order.
AI text
Market outlooks and assessments are generated by the xAI Grok model. The model receives only an indicator package assembled from the data above and is instructed to cite only its figures, keep conclusions consistent with the system trend score and provide no trading recommendations. Outputs undergo structural validation, and figures inconsistent with the indicator package are flagged for review. Before AI text is generated, the page displays a program-generated data summary.
Disclaimer: This section is automatically generated by software and AI from public market data for research and information only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns. Prices come from Binance XAUUSDT perpetual contracts and may differ from spot gold, COMEX futures, gold ETFs and physical gold quotes; derivatives and macroeconomic data may be delayed or revised. Past performance does not represent future results. Exercise independent judgment and bear your own risks.
FACTS / SOURCES / CONTEXT
Page highlights and supporting materials
What price basis does gold research use?
Historical research primarily uses Binance XAUUSDT perpetual contract data, with OKX XAU-USDT-SWAP as fallback; specific sources are recorded in each period's data. Check the selected UTC trading day. Contract data are not equivalent to physical gold trades or gold tailings project selling prices.